Over the past few years lending on residential property has typically grown by 50% a year, but this year lending is expected to grow by just 20% to reach s 95.9 billion Brazilian reals. This level of growth is still very healthy in comparison with many other international countries, but still represents a sharp decline on previous years.
At the beginning of the year lenders in Brazil were expecting to see the market expand by 30%, and the economy was predicted to grow by 4.5%. Now growth is forecast to be just 1.8% which is largely due to the European debt crisis.
At a local level the Brazilian property market has its own problems. In the past property development companies raised money through capital markets to launch new developments. However demand failed to keep pace, leading to rising levels of inventory. This year has seen the number of new launches reduced, with falling levels of inventory, and it's important to remember that the mortgage market in Brazil is still developing.
At the moment outstanding mortgages account for just 5% of GDP, a figure that has considerable room for expansion. Experts view the slowdown in mortgage lending as being a good thing, as slower expansion will allow a more balanced development of Brazilian mortgage loans industry.
The Brazilian economy is also expected to rebound quite strongly next year, with most economists forecasting growth of at least 3%, while some are forecasting growth as high as 4.5% in 2013. Next year it is expected that mortgage lending will continue to expand, and that demand for homes will continue to rise as more Brazilians are able to purchase a home.
Monday, 27 August 2012
Saturday, 21 July 2012
Canada's Property Market Cooling Even before Introduction of New Mortgage Rules
The property market in Canada was cooling even before Ottawa
introduced tighter mortgage rules. In June existing home sales fell
by 1.3% compared to May, and by 4.4% compared to a year earlier. The
average house price declined by 0.8% compared to June last year to
$369,339. These new rules will make the market even tougher, as 16
out of the 26 markets posted a fall in sales last month.
Not surprisingly Vancouver tops this list, but four cities in southern Ontario have also reported sales declines into the double digits. The mortgage rules were introduced by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty amid concerns about rising household debt and the possibility of a housing bubble.
The new regulations mean borrowers will be allowed to use up to 80% of their property's value as collateral for home equity loans, whereas before they could have used 85%. In addition the maximum amortisation period is now just 25 years for government insured mortgages, down from 30 years. Government backed mortgage insurance will only be available to homes with a purchase price of less than $1 million. In contrast with other previously introduced rules, there wasn't any rush by buyers to complete property purchases before these new regulations came into effect.
Property prices in Vancouver have declined by 13.3% year-on-year and it is very much a buyer’s market. Property prices in Toronto have increased by 6.8% year-on-year, but the biggest gains have been seen in Calgary, with increases into double digits and sales up by 16.7%. While economists cannot agree as to whether there will be a substantial price correction, estate agents feel the decline in sales activity combined with an increase in new listings has resulted in the housing market becoming more balanced.
Not surprisingly Vancouver tops this list, but four cities in southern Ontario have also reported sales declines into the double digits. The mortgage rules were introduced by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty amid concerns about rising household debt and the possibility of a housing bubble.
The new regulations mean borrowers will be allowed to use up to 80% of their property's value as collateral for home equity loans, whereas before they could have used 85%. In addition the maximum amortisation period is now just 25 years for government insured mortgages, down from 30 years. Government backed mortgage insurance will only be available to homes with a purchase price of less than $1 million. In contrast with other previously introduced rules, there wasn't any rush by buyers to complete property purchases before these new regulations came into effect.
Property prices in Vancouver have declined by 13.3% year-on-year and it is very much a buyer’s market. Property prices in Toronto have increased by 6.8% year-on-year, but the biggest gains have been seen in Calgary, with increases into double digits and sales up by 16.7%. While economists cannot agree as to whether there will be a substantial price correction, estate agents feel the decline in sales activity combined with an increase in new listings has resulted in the housing market becoming more balanced.
Tuesday, 3 July 2012
Property Prices in Singapore Dropped Slightly during the First Quarter
According to figures published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority, the prices of residential property in Singapore fell by 0.1% during the first quarter of 2012. In comparison the previous quarter saw price increases of 0.2%, and this marked the end of nine consecutive quarters of declining price increases. This is the first fall in prices since the second quarter of 2009.
The property prices of non-landed properties in the Core Central Region, and the Rest of Central Region dropped by 0.6%, whereas the previous quarter had seen increases of 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Property prices for homes within the Outside Central Region increased by 1.1% during the first quarter of this year, compared to 0.6% in the last quarter of 2011.
Rental rates increased by a slower percentage compared to the previous quarter, rising by just 0.3%, compared to 0.4% in the previous quarter. The rate of increase in rentals has been falling for three consecutive quarters.
Figures show 6,903 uncompleted private residential units were launched by developers during the first quarter of 2012, compared with 4,105 units during the last quarter of 2011. Developers sold 6,458 uncompleted private residential units during the first quarter of this year, compared with 3,525 units during the last quarter of 2011.
More than a quarter of all new sales were four units smaller than 50 m². Homes priced at less than $750,000 accounted for nearly half of all new sales, compared to just 25% of sales during the final quarter of last year. Most of these homes were in the suburbs, with 82% being sold in the Outside Central Region.
The property prices of non-landed properties in the Core Central Region, and the Rest of Central Region dropped by 0.6%, whereas the previous quarter had seen increases of 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Property prices for homes within the Outside Central Region increased by 1.1% during the first quarter of this year, compared to 0.6% in the last quarter of 2011.
Rental rates increased by a slower percentage compared to the previous quarter, rising by just 0.3%, compared to 0.4% in the previous quarter. The rate of increase in rentals has been falling for three consecutive quarters.
Figures show 6,903 uncompleted private residential units were launched by developers during the first quarter of 2012, compared with 4,105 units during the last quarter of 2011. Developers sold 6,458 uncompleted private residential units during the first quarter of this year, compared with 3,525 units during the last quarter of 2011.
More than a quarter of all new sales were four units smaller than 50 m². Homes priced at less than $750,000 accounted for nearly half of all new sales, compared to just 25% of sales during the final quarter of last year. Most of these homes were in the suburbs, with 82% being sold in the Outside Central Region.
Thursday, 7 June 2012
US Property Market Recovery May Be Slowed by Weaker Jobs Growth
During the last three months the jobs growth in the US has been
relatively weak, and is likely to slow down the recovery in the
housing market. Recently the unemployment rate increased to 8.2% as
businesses are still failing to hire new workers.
Last month the jobs growth was just 69,000, while at least 400,000 new jobs need to be added to the economy in order for it to be considered to be on the road to recovery. There are concerns that the worldwide economy may be slowing, and that they could be more economic troubles just around the corner, especially with the continued Eurozone debt crisis.
Historically it's been shown that property transactions usually lag behind employment gains by at least a year. At the moment first-time buyers and investors account for around two thirds of all house purchasers.
Many homeowners are trapped due to lack of equity, or have negative equity, while those who still have adequate equity are often reluctant to move due to low home prices. At the moment mortgage rates are at their lowest level ever, with a recent Freddie Mac survey showing the fixed rate for a 30 year mortgage was just 3.75%.
It could be that more people will be prompted to take the plunge during the busy summer selling period, provided they are able to qualify for a mortgage. At the moment the banks still require very high credit scores in order to obtain conventional financing.
However government backed schemes such as the FHA require lower credit scores to qualify. Certain areas of the country, especially those in the hardest hit regions are already showing significant signs of improvement. In addition job gains have been reported in warehousing and transportation, as well as healthcare.
Last month the jobs growth was just 69,000, while at least 400,000 new jobs need to be added to the economy in order for it to be considered to be on the road to recovery. There are concerns that the worldwide economy may be slowing, and that they could be more economic troubles just around the corner, especially with the continued Eurozone debt crisis.
Historically it's been shown that property transactions usually lag behind employment gains by at least a year. At the moment first-time buyers and investors account for around two thirds of all house purchasers.
Many homeowners are trapped due to lack of equity, or have negative equity, while those who still have adequate equity are often reluctant to move due to low home prices. At the moment mortgage rates are at their lowest level ever, with a recent Freddie Mac survey showing the fixed rate for a 30 year mortgage was just 3.75%.
It could be that more people will be prompted to take the plunge during the busy summer selling period, provided they are able to qualify for a mortgage. At the moment the banks still require very high credit scores in order to obtain conventional financing.
However government backed schemes such as the FHA require lower credit scores to qualify. Certain areas of the country, especially those in the hardest hit regions are already showing significant signs of improvement. In addition job gains have been reported in warehousing and transportation, as well as healthcare.
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Will Turkish Tourism Sector Be Able to Maintain Historic Success This Year?
The Turkish tourism sector performed relatively poorly during the
first quarter of this year, amid concerns that some of its rivals may
be making a strong comeback. This could undermine the impressive
growth Turkey has achieved during the last 10 years or so. Between
January and March Turkey received 6.35% fewer tourists compared to
the first three months last year, and tourism income dropped by 9.7%
compared to the same period.
These figures are important as the tourism revenue helps reduce the current account deficit, and Turkey has worked hard to diversify and develop its tourism sector. Last year it was able to exploit troubles in countries such as Egypt, Spain and Greece, in order to attract potential visitors, and this saw the country receive record numbers.
Last year Turkey received more than 30 million visitors, and earned $20 billion in tourism revenue, according to data from the World Tourism Organisation, but some figures estimate the number of visitors may have been as high as 36 million. This year there are concerns that Turkey will be able to maintain these high figures, as rivals are currently restructuring their tourism industry in order to mount a formidable comeback.
During last year Egypt’s tourism revenue fell by 29% due to domestic unrest, but the first quarter of this year saw figures recover. It's the same story in Greece, although many people may still choose to book holidays in Turkey due to safety concerns in both of these countries. Tourism experts are confident the country can maintain its foothold in the market, and point out Turkey has become much more popular during recent years and that the service industry as a whole has improved considerably. They are confident there will be a 5% increase in the number of tourists this year compared to 2011.
These figures are important as the tourism revenue helps reduce the current account deficit, and Turkey has worked hard to diversify and develop its tourism sector. Last year it was able to exploit troubles in countries such as Egypt, Spain and Greece, in order to attract potential visitors, and this saw the country receive record numbers.
Last year Turkey received more than 30 million visitors, and earned $20 billion in tourism revenue, according to data from the World Tourism Organisation, but some figures estimate the number of visitors may have been as high as 36 million. This year there are concerns that Turkey will be able to maintain these high figures, as rivals are currently restructuring their tourism industry in order to mount a formidable comeback.
During last year Egypt’s tourism revenue fell by 29% due to domestic unrest, but the first quarter of this year saw figures recover. It's the same story in Greece, although many people may still choose to book holidays in Turkey due to safety concerns in both of these countries. Tourism experts are confident the country can maintain its foothold in the market, and point out Turkey has become much more popular during recent years and that the service industry as a whole has improved considerably. They are confident there will be a 5% increase in the number of tourists this year compared to 2011.
Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Indonesia Acts to Tighten Lending Rules
From June onwards, lending institutions in Indonesia will tighten rules surrounding lending, which will include strict minimum payments for property purchases. The Central Bank is anxious to avoid the potential of any loan bubbles forming which could slow growth, and sees minimum payments as a way of slowing consumer loans, as levels have surged over the last couple of years.
Anyone wanting to purchase a home will only be able to borrow up to 70% of the property’s value, although homes of less than 70 metres will not be affected by these new rules. Lending is expected to grow by 27% this year, and last year private consumption accounted for 56% of the country’s economic growth which was 6.5% in 2011.
According to economists, these new regulations will discourage middle income earners from investing in speculative property. Indonesia is facing high demand for property, but the growth of the housing market has been hampered by government red tape, high interest rates, high construction costs, and restrictions on foreign ownership.
According to Bank Indonesia’s Residential Property Survey, prices rose by 4.5% to the year ending the third quarter of 2011, and property prices have been steadily increasing over the last couple of years or so.
However some 70% of people buying residential property are doing so for their own use, so there is far less risk of prices rising due to investors, but there are worries over the condominium market becoming oversupplied, as an average of 8,468 units have entered the market annually over the last five years, but this year the figure is expected to reach 20,302.
Anyone wanting to purchase a home will only be able to borrow up to 70% of the property’s value, although homes of less than 70 metres will not be affected by these new rules. Lending is expected to grow by 27% this year, and last year private consumption accounted for 56% of the country’s economic growth which was 6.5% in 2011.
According to economists, these new regulations will discourage middle income earners from investing in speculative property. Indonesia is facing high demand for property, but the growth of the housing market has been hampered by government red tape, high interest rates, high construction costs, and restrictions on foreign ownership.
According to Bank Indonesia’s Residential Property Survey, prices rose by 4.5% to the year ending the third quarter of 2011, and property prices have been steadily increasing over the last couple of years or so.
However some 70% of people buying residential property are doing so for their own use, so there is far less risk of prices rising due to investors, but there are worries over the condominium market becoming oversupplied, as an average of 8,468 units have entered the market annually over the last five years, but this year the figure is expected to reach 20,302.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Indian Developers Agree to a New Code of Conduct
The Confederation of Real Estate Developers Associations of India (CREDAI) has agreed to a new code of conduct which it hopes will resolve many of the complaints made about the process of buying a house. Most of the complaints centre on delays in taking possession of the property, additional money being demanded over the agreed price, and failure to meet commitments.
In the past buyers have been concerned that their only recourse over complaints is long and drawn out litigation, and that the process lacked transparency and accountability. The 8,000 plus members of CREDAI will now have to sign a Code of Conduct which is a self-governing mechanism designed to get developers to adhere to certain levels of conduct.
These include being more transparent over area calculations and specifications, and to declare the amount of compensation payable in the event of any delays over the project being finished. The aim of the new Code of Conduct is to increase transparency and to help buyers differentiate between good developers and bad developers. In addition CREDAI has introduced a new Consumer Grievance Redressal Forum which allows any member of the public who has bought property through a CREDAI member, to lodge a complaint against them if they are dissatisfied with the level of service they received.
CREDAI has already run a pilot project, and found that 90% of the complaints against developers were resolved due to peer pressure on the forum. The forum is comprised of legal experts and experienced developers who decide whether the complaint will be upheld. CREDAI is currently running an advertising campaign to increase awareness of this new code, and hopes that this will restore the faith of consumers.
In the past buyers have been concerned that their only recourse over complaints is long and drawn out litigation, and that the process lacked transparency and accountability. The 8,000 plus members of CREDAI will now have to sign a Code of Conduct which is a self-governing mechanism designed to get developers to adhere to certain levels of conduct.
These include being more transparent over area calculations and specifications, and to declare the amount of compensation payable in the event of any delays over the project being finished. The aim of the new Code of Conduct is to increase transparency and to help buyers differentiate between good developers and bad developers. In addition CREDAI has introduced a new Consumer Grievance Redressal Forum which allows any member of the public who has bought property through a CREDAI member, to lodge a complaint against them if they are dissatisfied with the level of service they received.
CREDAI has already run a pilot project, and found that 90% of the complaints against developers were resolved due to peer pressure on the forum. The forum is comprised of legal experts and experienced developers who decide whether the complaint will be upheld. CREDAI is currently running an advertising campaign to increase awareness of this new code, and hopes that this will restore the faith of consumers.
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